Market reports

General oils and fats complex

General information

In addition to the Iran crisis, which has driven up oil prices and, consequently, energy and fertiliser prices, announcements by many governments (including the US, Indonesia and Thailand) that they intend to increase blending quotas are also playing a significant role in the price trends for vegetable oils.

Soybean oil

In the US, soyabean oil prices have been driven up by strong demand from the biodiesel industry. At the same time, uncertainty remains regarding the upcoming US harvest, as weather conditions in the key growing regions of the Midwest are once again coming into focus, as they do every year. The market continues to be characterised by significant volatility, and it is advisable to keep a close eye on one’s own positions.

Rapeseed oil

The supply situation in the EU has stabilised significantly compared with the previous year. At 20.16 million tonnes in 2025, the EU harvest was much higher than in the previous year (16.77 million tonnes). Above-average yields were achieved particularly in Germany and France.

For the coming harvest, experts expect an expansion of cultivation areas in the EU by approximately 5%. In Germany, the sown area is estimated at 1.1–1.15 million hectares. This was due to the attractive producer prices in autumn 2025. However, despite the increase in area, yield losses may occur due to fertiliser shortages, pest pressure and weather conditions.

Processing capacities are operating at very high levels, meaning that almost no volumes are available for early delivery dates. Overall, rapeseed oil became more expensive in the spring. This was due to the increased seed prices from the previous harvest.

Outlook: Prices are also set to remain fairly stable for the new harvest. This is due to increased logistics costs and the still uncertain harvest situation. The emerging good sunflower harvest could have a dampening effect on prices. However, continued strong demand from the biofuel sector is supporting price levels.

Sunflower oil

Sunflower oil prices remain firm for the near term. This is due to high utilisation of processing capacity.

Following the significant price rises in 2025, caused by the poor harvest in Ukraine, the situation is set to ease in the fourth quarter thanks to record planting areas. Prices will remain relatively stable in the second and third quarters as stocks from the previous harvest decline. Should the harvest forecasts for Ukraine and Russia prove accurate, a downward price correction is to be expected. Large harvests are also anticipated in the EU, particularly in France and Romania.

Sunflower oil remains a sought-after product in the food market – on the one hand as a substitute for expensive palm oil, and on the other due to the increased demand for mid-oleic and high-oleic oils.

Olive oil

Spanish olive oil production is expected to total around 1.3 million tonnes this season. As previously mentioned, the availability of oils of good sensory quality is limited this year, whereas that of lampante oils is higher. This makes refined olive oils cheaper than extra virgin quality. The current flowering season in Spain is, for the most part, exceptionally good. This suggests a record harvest. However, there are still several months to go, and unfavourable weather conditions could still lead to losses. Fortunately, the water reservoirs are significantly better filled this year.

The growth driver this year is Tunisia, with olive oil production of around 500,000 tonnes, which is double the average production of the last 10 years. Italy, with just under 300,000 tonnes, Greece, with just over 200,000 tonnes, and Portugal, with 170,000 tonnes of olive oil production, are at average levels.

Prices are likely to move sideways in the near future. Should the current harvest in Spain continue to develop under favourable weather conditions, prices may fall – although it should be noted that, until the new harvest arrives from November onwards, oils of good sensory quality will be available only in limited quantities for spot purchases.

Castor oil

India’s 2025–26 castor crop harvest is in its final phase and is expected to conclude by end-April, with some late-sown regions extending into May. Overall production estimates have been revised slightly downward due to late-season moisture stress, localized pest attacks, and prolonged dry spells affecting rainfed areas. Irrigated regions continue to maintain normal to good crop conditions, helping stabilize national output despite weaker performance in non-irrigated pockets. National castor acreage is estimated at around 890,000 hectares, while average yield estimates have been reduced by about 2.5% to
1,978 kg/ha. As a result, total castor seed production is now projected at approximately 1.70 million tonnes, reflecting a modest decline of nearly 3% from earlier estimates.

Despite the arrival of castor seeds in the physical market, prices have remained largely stable over the past few weeks, indicating resilient demand and limited downside from current levels. Market participants expect arrivals to remain high until around 20 May, after which lower arrivals and weather-related uncertainties during the later part of the season could support firmer prices, with the market likely to stay range-bound through August.

In Europe, higher transportation and logistics costs continue to keep castor oil prices elevated despite stable seed market conditions in India.

Key products from the Gustav Heess production in Bischofswiesen

Organic Rapeseed oil

Winter rapeseed is currently in full flowering. Crop stands vary by region, depending on the amount of rainfall received so far. The total cultivated area remains limited.

Weather conditions over the coming weeks will be crucial for the crops’ further development. Stable conditions during the ripening period are particularly important – without severe thunderstorms, hail or significant pest pressure. At present, the focus is primarily on the rapeseed beetle during flowering, followed by the cabbage pod weevil after flowering.

The rapeseed harvest is expected from July onwards. The first oil from the new harvest will be available from August/September.

Organic Sunflower oil

The sowing of organic sunflowers is in its final stages in southern and eastern Europe. In Germany, sowing is currently in full swing. Overall, an increase in the area under cultivation is expected for the coming harvest.

Available seed lots from the previous harvest remain limited. The first oils from the new harvest are expected to be available from November.

Key products from the Gustav Heess production in the USA

Almond oil

Current industry estimates for the 2026 California almond crop are centered around 2.7 billion lbs, pointing to another steady production year rather than a return to the exceptionally high yields seen earlier in the decade.

Early-season weather created mixed expectations, with strong winter chilling hours and healthy orchard conditions offset by rain and cold temperatures during bloom, followed by periods of record March heat. As the season has progressed, improved water availability in key southern and western growing regions, solid orchard performance in several pollinator varieties such as Butte/Padre, and expectations for larger kernel sizing have supported the view that the crop could ultimately finish closer to 2.8 billion lbs. 

More recently, localized heavy hail events in parts of the Central Valley have added another layer of uncertainty, with visible orchard damage reported in some growing areas, although the full impact on statewide production remains unclear at this stage. 

At the same time, variability between regions remains significant, particularly in northern growing areas and orchards impacted by inconsistent bloom conditions.

Overall market sentiment remains firm, as rising fertilizer, fuel, and input costs, ongoing acreage reductions, and structurally lower statewide yield trends continue to support a tighter long-term supply outlook.

Hazelnut oil

As highlighted in our earlier market updates, last years hazelnut crop was significantly affected by a combination of adverse weather conditions, including a severe spring freeze in Turkey and extreme summer heat across major European growing regions. These events created considerable supply tightness and led to sharp price increases across the market, despite an excellent 2025 crop in Oregon.

As we source our hazelnuts from Oregon, we were able to maintain consistent availability throughout this particularly challenging market environment. Looking ahead, the market outlook for the coming months remains uncertain, with prices continuing to stay at elevated levels for the time being. Much will depend on the development and arrival of the new crop beginning in September.

Current expectations for Oregon remain relatively positive, supported by stable weather conditions and expanding acreage that should contribute to another solid harvest. In Turkey, early projections also suggest the potential for a good crop; however, the market continues to approach these forecasts cautiously due to ongoing weather risks and the lasting impact of last season’s frost and heat damage.

view market report as PDF