Market reports

General oils and fats complex

Soybean oil

In the main growing regions of the USA, the upcoming soybean crop is developing under favorable conditions. A very good harvest is expected. However, there are still significant risks, such as heat and drought, which can stress the soybean plants in August, when they are particularly sensitive.
Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay have increased their soybean exports by more than 20%.
This has had a dampening effect on prices. However, prices on the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) were supported by strong purchases from funds. The increase in blending quotas in Brazil and the potentially higher demand from the US biodiesel industry have also contributed to further price increases.
However, these price increases are likely to be limited by the currently favorable prices for palm oil and sunflower oil.

Sunflower oil

Currently, the sunflower oil markets are in a transitional phase. As available supplies decline until the new harvest, more attractive prices are expected from October onwards, since the expected harvests in the Black Sea region could turn out significantly better. Experts anticipate that global sunflower oil production will rise to over 23 million tons, which would represent an increase of 10% compared to the previous year. However, there are still some weather-related risks in the two months leading up to the harvest. In particular, extreme heat could further reduce yields.

Low stock levels, however, will generally limit potential price declines.It is also important to take processing capacities into account, as the major refineries are already running at high capacity in the fourth quarter.

Rapeseed oil

The initial estimates for global rapeseed oil production in the 2025/26 season stand at just under 31 million tons, which would represent a decrease of around 2% compared to the previous year.
However, the scope for price increases remains limited, as the strong sunflower harvest is expected to put downward pressure on sunflower oil prices.

Olive oil

Olive oil consumption has risen significantly in recent months, driven by the sharp decline in price levels. However, prices have increased again by around 5% in recent weeks. This is partly due to lower stock levels in Spain, which stood at around 0.55 million tons at the end of May. In addition, expectations for the new harvest have been revised downward. In May, production in Spain was forecast at 1.7 million tons. Italy and other Mediterranean countries are also expecting good harvests. However, the forecast for Spain has been adjusted down to 1.55 million tons, mainly due to exceptional heat and pest infestations in various regions of Andalusia.

Castor oil

The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) has forecast a significant decline in castor seed production for the 2024–25 season. According to the second estimate conducted by Indian Agribusiness Systems Ltd (AgriWatch), castor seed output is expected to reach 1.56 million tonnes in the major producing states, down from 1.82 million tonnes in the first estimate. By comparison, India’s castor seed production was estimated at 1.976 million tonnes in the 2023–24 season.

BV Mehta, Executive Director of SEA, attributed this decline to adverse weather conditions in India’s main growing regions. He explained that rising temperatures since February have severely affected crop yields, particularly for late-planted and resown crops. Lower yields have been recorded in key growing districts across Gujarat and Rajasthan. Castor acreage in India has decreased to 868,000 hectares for the 2024–25 season, down from 988,000 hectares in 2023–24. SEA has estimated the national yield at 1,796 kg/ha for 2024–25, compared to 2,000 kg/ha in 2023–24.

In Gujarat, the country’s leading producer, the cultivated area is expected to decline to 646,000 hectares in 2024–25 from 724,000 hectares the previous season. Castor seed production in Gujarat is projected to fall to 1.226 mio. tonnes in 2024–25, down from 1.574 mio. tonnes last year. Mehta attributed this drop to higher-than-normal temperatures from February to April, which accelerated crop maturity and reduced yields. SEA estimates the yield in Gujarat at 1.897 kg/ha for 2024–25, compared to 2.174 kg/ha the previous season.

In Rajasthan, production has been revised downward to 271,000 tonnes for 2024–25, compared to 331,000 tonnes last year — a decline of about 13.4%. The area under cultivation is estimated at 170,000 hectares, down from 192,000 hectares. Mehta noted that despite good water availability through canal irrigation, a sudden spike in temperatures in Rajasthan adversely affected yields. SEA projects the state’s yield at 1.594 kg/ha in 2024–25, slightly lower than last year’s 1.630 kg/ha.

Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are expected to produce 54,000 tonnes of castor seed in 2024–25, down from 80,200 tonnes in 2023–24. This decline is mainly due to a reduction in acreage from 60,100 hectares last season to 37,500 hectares this season.

„SEA projects sharp decline in castorseed production due to weather factors.“
(Source: Business Line, Mumbai edition, 28 May 2025, AJ Vinayak, Mangaluru)

Key products from the Gustav Heess production in the USA

Almond oil

The 2024 Crop year is quickly coming to a close as Harvest 2025 approaches. Current projections for the 2025 crop sit at 2.8 billion pounds, a small increase from what was harvested last year but still smaller than the record 3.1billion pounds in 2020. The USDA will release their final estimate on July 10^th.

Walnut oil

The California Walnut Board (CWB) has commissioned Land IQ to create an assessment of the current Walnut acreage. The first report was released in June, and the final report will be released August 31^st. Currently there are 374,055 acres of active Walnut bearing land in California. This number is down from the highest levels we saw in 2019, and there are 8,538 new acres coming into production next year.

Pistachio oil

Shipments are largely down from last year due to the lack of supply. Many processors are either sold out or very close to being sold out of 2024 crop. We are still 3 months away from harvesting the 2025 crop, but all indications are pointing to a very large crop size. The nuts are beginning to fill in and it is a crucial time for farmers and the industry as a whole. The popularity of the now viral Dubai chocolate has caused the demand for pistachios to surge.

Hazelnut oil

In 2024 conditions were perfect for Hazelnut farmers to deliver a large and high-quality crop. This was their largest crop with an almost 10% increase in volume. Growers were also pleased with favorable pricing as quality Oregon grown hazelnuts have been in high demand. The industry is expecting this growth to continue. Growers are expanding orchards and processors are investing in new equipment to process more total Hazelnuts as the demand for hazelnuts are growing.

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