General oils and fats complex
The last US crop report was a surprise for many market participants, as the estimates of planted areas for soybeans in the USA were significantly under expectations. The report triggered increased buying activity by various funds, which led to short-term "limit-up" reactions in the prices for old and new-crop commodities on the Chicago exchange. Prices are still a bit lower than in previous weeks, because the supply of soybeans is actually a little greater than expected. The latest US crop is probably about 1.5 million tons larger than originally thought. The South American crop is now also taking off, contributing to the slight easing. Especially in the USA, weather conditions are now coming to the fore, which are of great importance for the growing of the new US crop.
Sowing has started in Ukraine, with weather conditions turning out to be very favourable. Overall, a record sowing is expected in Russia and Ukraine. It is certain that the Russian government will also impose an export tax on sunflower oil, which will come into force by the new harvest at the latest. This is to be applied at prices of USD 1000/tons and above. It remains to be seen how this will affect actual growing activities. The prices for the old crop commodities for deliveries until October are still expected to remain quite stable.
Rapeseed oil prices remained almost unaffected by movements in the other vegetable oil markets. The fundamental data remain unchanged. A below-average harvest is expected, so there will be very little pressure on new crop quantities.
Many experts assume that vegetable oil prices (especially for sunflower oil, palm oil, soybean oil) reached their highs in the last calendar quarter. For the months of April-June there will be a light price calming, which will increase further in the third quarter. This is expected to be due to much larger palm oil production in Southeast Asia and large South American soybean oil quantities. The Northern Hemisphere is also expecting an increased supply of oilseeds in the third and fourth quarters. A significantly higher sunflower crop is expected, but also a good soybean crop in the USA. How much prices will ultimately fall depends very much on the actual weather conditions in the individual harvest regions. Another important factor will be the blending quotas for biodiesel in many countries, which are an important driver of global demand. Finally, the recovery of the individual economies after the Corona pandemic will also have an influence on the vegetable oil markets.
Key Products from the Gustav Heess Production in the USA
With the 3.05 billion lb crop, there were speculations that there is a lot of availability, but the demand for this healthy nut has also increased over the past. Especially the usage of almonds for almond butter is becoming more and more popular. As a consequence of this high demand the prices remain firm and available product is low. March shipment report should be available soon and will perhaps even show a new record. For the 2021 crop the bloom was almost ideal weatherwise. It was raining nice and slowly as the leaves were pushing out which means that the trees are looking very nice. Next month, we should have some preliminary reports on the bud set, meaning the average number of nuts per tree. This gives a first indication how large the 2021 crop will be.
Walnut trees are still dormant, we’ll see they coming alive now that we have temperatures in the 70s during the day.
Pricing is also quiet, no changes in any direction. Shellers are steadily moving product.
Visit our website for always up to date specifications.