Market reports

General oils and fats complex

General situation

The current deadlock in the EU over the implementation of the EUDR Regulation (European Deforestation Directive) continues to cause uncertainty and growing frustration among many market participants in the EU. Palm oil, palm kernel oil, soybean oil, and the respective press cakes are affected. A final decision by the EU must be made by December 15, 2025, so that it can be published until December 30, 2025. The outcome is unpredictable, although the majority assumption is that implementation will be postponed by one year, especially since the EU has communicated that the IT solutions required to implement this regulation are not yet fully available.

Soybean oil

Prices for U.S. soybeans for nearby contracts are expected to come under pressure after the Chinese Ministry of Finance announced that it will continue to impose a total import duty of 13% on American soybeans. The weather in South American growing regions also plays a key role here. If conditions remain favorable, Brazil will see a record harvest, which would put further pressure on US soybean prices.

Sunflower oil

Supply in the Black Sea region remains tight. Harvest estimates for Russia, Ukraine, and the EU have been further revised downward. The current estimate is around 57 million tons, which would represent an increase of just under 3% over the previous year. Farmers are currently reluctant to bring their crops to market. Premiums on soybean oil have declined only slightly. However, production should pick up in the coming weeks, which means that more goods should be available again and sunflower oil could become more attractive in terms of price.

Rapeseed oil

Rapeseed oil production in Germany has increased since August. However, demand from the food industry and the biodiesel sector remains strong. This is keeping prices stable to slightly firmer, which is also supported by the continued firmness of sunflower oil prices.

Linseed oil

The record harvest in Kazakhstan is now coming onto the market and will put pressure on current prices in the EU. Since the beginning of October, linseed prices have fallen by almost 9%.

Olive oil

The European harvests have now begun. Spain has already produced approximately 41,000 tons in October. Nevertheless, stocks amount to only 223,000 tons, which is comparatively low. Meanwhile, experts fear that the originally estimated annual production of approximately
1.4 million tons may not be achieved, as initial processing indicates lower yields this season. The reason given for this is the intense heat in the summer. Portugal is already reporting production declines of almost 30%. In Italy and Greece, expectations are still unclear. Tunisia, on the other hand, expects record production.

In Spain, cooperatives are reacting cautiously to this news, and prices for the first quarter of 2026 differ only slightly from current spot offers. It is still too early to make any statements about the expected qualities.

Castor oil

Currently many parts of Gujarat are witnessing unexpected rainfall which is a rare phenomenon for this time of the year. Crops like groundnut and cotton are damaged considerably. For the castor bean the damage is so far not too big, however in some fields where water drainage is not proper and water logging happens, the castor crop may have been damaged as well. Over the next few weeks, we will get a clearer picture about the new crop size. Due to the early rain sowing was also early and the new crop should arrive already end of December.

After the Diwali festival of lights which lasted 5 days, the castor market has restarted again. This year carry over stock is low and demand from Europe is stable and further buying interest is expected from China.

However, due to high tariff applicable for all exports to the US, there is very low shipments going to US. Buyers are waiting and hoping that by mid-November the additional tariff will be lifted. In this case prices could increase again.

But currently despite the low carry over the market price remains stable with only slight increases over the last week which makes the current price level still a good level for securing castor oil needs until end of Q1 2026.

Key products from the Gustav Heess production in the USA

Almond oil

The California almond harvest started early, and is ending very late. A lot of rain events throughout the valley during harvest caused significant delays. The original projections of 3.1 billion are out and now the industry is expecting the final number to come in at around 2.7 billion pounds. Yields compared to last year vary quite a lot depending on the region, but the Fresno region is currently showing the best results. Sales are strong in the Middle East and North Africa, but slow in Europe and the rest of Asia due to market conditions.

Walnut oil

The timing of the rainfall in California was good for the crop. As farmers are actively harvesting, we are seeing small, scattered showers but nothing heavy. We are still expecting a 1.4 billion pound harvest which is right in line with the early estimates. After a cool summer the quality of both in shell and shelled nuts looks excellent.

Pistachio oil

The pistachio harvest is officially wrapping up, and farmers are expecting a record crop. This is perfect timing as demand for pistachios continues to skyrocket. Major candy companies like Lindt and Laderach are looking to cash in on the viral Dubai chocolate and more grocery stores begin stocking pistachio paste. The rain has caused around 10-20% of the crop to have shell stains, and prices for high quality nuts will continue to rise.

Hazelnut oil

Ideal growing conditions, and an early harvest is putting Oregon on track to produce another record size Hazelnut crop in 2025. The largest producer of Hazelnuts in the world (Turkey) is seeing another shortage due to the frost that devastated much of their farming regions. This is causing prices around the world to remain quite high despite Oregon’s record crop size.

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